End of Year 2022
Telluride’s 2022 real estate activity has concluded with $1.106 billion in dollar volume across 582 sales. Dollar volume is down 22% over 2021 but up 27% over the previous 5-year average. Number of sales finished down 38% over 2021 and 15% down over the previous 5-year average. 2022 started strong with January, February, and March (and June) dollar volume peaking above 2021 numbers but slowed April through December. The average sales price in San Miguel County remained strong, increasing 26% over 2021 with limited quality inventory driving up price per square foot.
The largest dollar volume in 2022 occurred in Mountain Village condos ($218.4 million), followed by Mountain Village single family homes ($200.5 million) and Telluride single family homes ($131.7 million). Mountain Village sales accounted for 45% of all country transactions, Telluride accounted for 27%, and the rest of San Miguel County made up the remaining 28%.
The average price per square foot for Telluride single family homes declined in 2022 to $1,911 (from $2,058 in 2021); Telluride condo prices jumped to $1,781 (from $1,394 in 2021); Mountain Village price per square foot reached highs of $1,321 for single family homes and $1,192 for condos.
December 2022 numbers show a sharp decrease in real estate activity. Dollar volume was down 81% over 2021 and 72% over the previous 5-year average. Inflation, rising interest rates, and recessionary risk have finally slowed (nearly halted) the pandemic real estate frenzy. Major banks and economists are predicting an economic slowdown in 2023.
From Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Markets Strategist, Co-Head of Global Research, J.P. Morgan:
“There is good and bad news for equity markets and more broadly risky asset classes in 2023. The good news is that central banks will likely be forced to pivot and signal cutting interest rates sometime next year, which should result in a sustained recovery of asset prices and subsequently the economy by the end of 2023. The bad news is that in order for that pivot to happen, we will need to see a combination of more economic weakness, an increase in unemployment, market volatility, decline in levels of risky assets and a fall in inflation. All of these are likely to cause or coincide with downside risk in the near term.”
2023 could usher in deals for patient and well leveraged buyers. Give me a call to discuss this intricate market in greater detail.
November 2022
Year to date, dollar volume of real estate sales is up 41% over the previous 5-year average while number of sales is down 8% over the same period. 2022 has seen high dollar transactions and record price per square foot sales. The average sales price in San Miguel County is up 30% over 2021. Prices are up 20% in the Town of Telluride and up 37% in Mountain Village. The most dollar volume this year has come from Mountain Village Condos ($207 million), followed by Mountain Village single family homes ($190 million), and Telluride single family homes ($131 million). To date, the market has done over $1 billion in transaction volume.
November data has slowed significantly from earlier this year. November dollar volume is down 16% over the previous 5-year average and number of sales is down 45%. Rising interest rates, high inflation, stock market volatility, higher prices, and limited well-priced inventory have slowed the real estate frenzy in Telluride.
Many economists have predicted a strong downturn in 2023 while others are optimistic about the economy’s fate. One thing is certain, Telluride continues to be a desirable community and demand is likely to remain as long as prices reflect value.
October 2022
October 2022’s real estate activity was characterized by a lower number of sales with key sizeable transactions. While dollar volume was 22% below the previous 5-year average, there were still noteworthy deals, including a $14.85 million sale in the Ski Ranches and four single family home sales over $4.2 million in Mountain Village.
Year to date, dollar volume is down only 13% over 2021 but is up 49% over the previous 5-year average. The average sales price in San Miguel County is up 29% over last year while number of sales is down 33%. To date, limited inventory has driven up sales prices. The largest dollar volume this year has occurred with Mountain Village single family homes, followed by Mountain Village condos, and Telluride condos.
As inflation remains elevated, the Fed continues to hike interest rates with outlooks continuing this trend into early 2023. The highest mortgage rates in over a decade are causing housing affordability to fall across the nation. Housing prices in Telluride are likely to slowly drop if adverse macroeconomic factors prevail, but so far, prices remain up year-over-year. Telluride is a unique real estate market as many buyers do not rely on mortgages. Is now a good time to buy or sell, give me a call and we can discuss.
September 2022 (Q3 Update)
Year to date, real estate dollar volume in San Miguel County remains strong, down only 9% from 2021 and up 64% over the previous 5-year average. Number of sales lags 31% over 2021 but is up 4% over the previous 5-year average. September 2022 sales data is down in dollar volume and number of sales from 2021, but dollar volume is up 22% over the previous 5-year average. Higher sales prices in 2022 have allowed overall dollar volume to remain competitive. Q3 of 2022 produced over $267 million in dollar volume, helping contribute to over $907 million in real estate transactions so far this year. To date, the most dollar volume in 2022 has occurred in Mountain Village condos, followed by Mountain Village single family homes, and Telluride condos.
With little new inventory coming online, the real estate market is showing signs of a plateau. Uncertainty in the stock market, inflation, and rising interest rates could lead to buyer negotiating power in the coming months. Alternatively, coveted properties continue to produce strong interest and fast sales. A strategic approach will yield the highest returns, both today and in the future. Reach out any time to chat with me more about the current real estate market in Telluride and if now is a good time to buy or sell your property.
August 2022
August 2022 real estate data suggests the market is cooling down from record high dollar volume and number of sales this past year. August 2022 numbers are down 21% in dollar volume and 35% in number of sales over August 2021. Additionally, dollar volume is down 5% and number of sales is down 20% over the previous 5-year average. Year to date, we are down 10% in dollar volume and 30% in number of sales over 2021, but still up in both categories (74% and 9% respectively) compared to the previous 5-year average. This suggests that demand for Telluride is still stronger than it was pre-pandemic but that the real estate frenzy has perhaps slipped away.
So far in 2022, average sales prices are all up over 2021, by 17% in Telluride, 25% in Mountain Village, and 38% in the remainder of San Miguel County. Architects, builders, and contractors remain in high demand with new construction needs still high. The Fed is on path to continue increasing interest rates through 2022 which could ultimately help shape the fate of real estate sales through the end of the year. We may soon see more deals for patient and well leveraged buyers.
July 2022
July 2022 real estate data is down over 2021, but still strong compared to the previous 5-year averages for both the month of July and year to date data. July 2022 is up 46% in dollar volume over the previous 5-year average and year to date dollar volume is up 91% over the previous 5-year average. The average sales price in San Miguel County so far this year is up 30% over last year ($1.85 million in 2022 vs $1.43 million in 2022).
The first several months of 2022 experienced low inventory and record price per square foot numbers. Inventory has steadily grown throughout 2022 and several properties have recently experienced price drops. The most dollar volume so far this year has occurred in Mountain Village single family homes, followed by Mountain Village condos, and Telluride condos. The highest number of sales has occurred in Mountain Village fractional condos, followed by San Miguel County lots/land, and Mountain Village condos. There are a myriad of macro-economic factors that will shape how 2022 progresses, including recession trends, increasing mortgage rates, and market uncertainty. The coming months could produce opportunities for those looking to call Telluride home.
June, 2022
June 2022 dollar volume was up 32% over 2021 and 122% over the previous 5-year average. June’s largest transaction volume occurred in Mountain Village single family homes ($28.6 million), followed by San Miguel County land, and Telluride single family homes. Year to date, dollar volume is down 7% over 2021 (Telluride’s largest year in real estate transactions) but up 97% over the previous 5-year average. To date in 2022, the largest dollar volume has occurred in Mountain Village single family homes (over $109.6 million), followed by Mountain Village condos (over $98.1 million), and San Miguel County single family homes (over $92.8 million).
Equity markets, inflation, crypto, and interest rates continue to be hot topic. The S&P 500 was down nearly 21% for the first half of 2022, inflation has accelerated to 9.1%, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted nearly 60% this year, and interest rates are on the rise. These factors are the perfect storm for a slowing real estate market; however, large transactions continue to take place with new properties going under contract weekly. Telluride real estate remains to be a favorable investment. The second half of 2022 could bring a market correction, making real estate investments even more favorable. Only time will tell. If you are interested in learning more about the Telluride real estate market, call or email me any time.
